Ben Zauzmer is a contributing writer for The Hollywood Reporter and the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood. He has been using mathematical models to predict the outcomes of each Academy Award category for the last 11 years and this year things are looking exciting.
Ben’s mathematical predictions weigh historical data, batting markers and other metrics to predict each category. Note that the model produces percentages, not guarantees. Last year, 19 of the 20 mathematical favourites from his model were winners, but what’s going to happen this Sunday?
Best Picture
Spotlight, Moonlight, Green Book and CODA were all surprise winners. Everything Everywhere All at Once only has a 2-in-3 chance to win, which is good, but does it really make it a strong front runner?
Best Director
The mathematical probability of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) becoming on the third directing duo to win is strong, but Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Todd Field (Tár) could upset their chances.
Best Actor
A tough category to predict. Austin Butler (Elvis) is favourite to beat Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser to the statuette according to the model, but it looks like we’re in for a nail biter.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett won the BAFTA, the Critics Choice award and the Golden Globe, Michelle Yeoh the Screen Actors Guild, and arguably now has momentum, but, as Ben points out, models don’t do momentum. It could be really close in the end, though.
Elsewhere, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio looks like grabbing the Best Animated Feature Award and there are tight races for Best International Feature, Best Editing and Best Costume Design, but can anybody really catch Avatar: The Way Of Water in the Best Visual Effects category? Ben’s algorithms certainly don’t think so. For a full run-down of his predictions, see his original piece in The Hollywood Reporter.